NBA playoff bets: Timberwolves vs. Suns Game 3 prediction, odds, pick for Friday 4/26

Timberwolves vs. Suns Odds

Friday, April 26, 10:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves have bullied the Suns in the first two games of this series. They’ve done an elite job of forcing turnovers, rebounding and getting to the free-throw line. These teams are polar opposites so far, as the Timberwolves have embraced physicality while the Suns have just been flat-out soft — to put it lightly.

A lot of analysts, including myself, were initially bearish on the Timberwolves' prospects because it felt like the Suns had plenty of mid-range shot makers on their team. That was supposed to be a huge edge because the Timberwolves do a great job of getting opponents off the 3-point line while simultaneously preventing easy rim looks. The Suns seemed like the perfect offense to exploit the Timberwolves' defense from the mid-range, but so far they’ve shot the ball poorly and turned the ball over on about 20% of their possessions. It is very difficult to win games in the NBA when you turn the ball over at that rate, so that will be the No. 1 key for the Suns here on the offensive end.

The Timberwolves' offense has done a great job both in the half-court and in transition so far. They have been especially effective at driving the ball deep into the paint and generating easy layups and dunks. Minnesota had a 43% offensive rim rate in Game 2. If the Timberwolves can continue to get all the way to the rim for clean dunks, it won’t matter what the Suns do on offense.

Phoenix Suns

There are plenty of trends to support this being a Suns spot considering they're going back home down 2-0, but I’m not entirely sure this Suns team isn’t checked out entirely.

If you watched the second half of Tuesday night’s game, you saw a Phoenix team that was completely lifeless on both ends of the floor despite actually leading at halftime and being within single digits for the vast majority of the second half.

On the offensive end, the ball simply did not move at all and the Suns' big three were oddly deferring to role players like Drew Eubanks and Jusuf Nurkić late in the game. Defensively, we saw defenders give up straight line drive dunks and layups right to the rim throughout the fourth quarter. The team looked completely lifeless and it was inexplicable because it wasn’t a blowout scenario. Maybe they flip a switch because they are at home on Friday, but it’s hard for me to believe in that outcome given how disinterested they were in competition Tuesday.

The Suns may also be without their best shooter in Grayson Allen, who is questionable with an ankle injury. Any injury to this Suns rotation is massive because this is not a deep team and it will force them to play guys like Eric Gordon and Eubanks more minutes. Allen led the NBA in 3-point percentage and was a much-improved playmaker on the season, so that would be a massive loss.

Timberwolves vs. Suns

Betting Pick & Prediction

I will not be backing the Suns here, but I do like the Over 207. The first two games have cleared this number easily and the Suns have shown no ability or willingness to prevent drives from the Timberwolves. I’d argue the Suns are due for some positive shooting regression offensively, and we should also see a bit more pace and energy from them on that end given the stakes.

I’ll be on the Over, but I will say that if you like the Timberwolves, you should definitely be taking their moneyline and some alt spreads on them given the Suns' willingness to quit when they are down. We’ve seen this Suns team give up twice in fourth quarters this series, and the Timberwolves alt lines will be extremely juicy given they are 4-point underdogs currently.

Take the Over 207 and play this up to 212 in Game 3.

Pick: Over 207